Global trade flows of goods, capital, information and people rose at a faster rate in 2025 than in any other year since 2011, excluding 2017 and the post-Covid-19 rebound, and are set to grow at the same rate as they did over the past decade, until 2029, freight and supply chain multinational DHL notes in its 'Global Connectedness Report 2026'.

The nine-million data points used in the report point to global trade intensity increasing slightly, said research university New York University Stern School of Business and lead author of the report Professor Steven Altman during a briefing on the findings of the report on March 12.

The share of global trade remained close to the all-time high, having remained stable since 2022 and increasing slightly in 2025. Despite the challenges around the world, trade growth was unusually strong and was forecast to grow at its typical rate over the medium term, he said.

Supply chains were also extending, with traded goods crossing the longest average distances ever recorded. While recent US tariff increases may temper growth this year, global goods trade was still projected to expand at an average annual rate of 2.6% through 2029, in line with the past decade, says DHL Group CEO Tobias Meyer in the report.

Altman pointed out that the average distances were measured between the capital cities of countries, meaning the longer average distances indicated that international trade was growing between countries located farther apart, but this did not specifically indicate longer distances travelled in order to deliver goods and services.

Further, the data collected during the 15 years in which the report had been published, which further drew on data going back to 2001, showed that the narrative of de-globalisation was not underpinned by evidence, said Altman.

The world remains far from a split into disconnected geopolitical blocs. Only 4% to 6% of global goods trade, greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have shifted away from geopolitical rivals over the past decade.

Trade flows shifted more toward neutral countries or countries with flexible or intermediate geopolitical positions, such as India and Vietnam, than to close allies, implying more derisking than friend-shoring, he noted.

Most international business already occurs among friendly countries, which limited the threat derisking strategies posed to globalisation, he added.

Additionally, in 2025, only 12% of global goods trade, 5% of greenfield FDI and 3% of cross-border M&As took place between US-aligned and China-aligned blocs of close allies.

“Prominent narratives about de-globalisation are driven more by politics and public policy than by actual shifts in cross-border flows. While the risk of de-globalisation has risen and the pattern of connectedness is shifting, the world overall remains as connected as ever,” said Altman.

However, the data shows that most flows happen within rather than between countries.

The DHL Global Connectedness Index measures the balance of international versus domestic activity on a scale from 0%, in which no flows cross national borders, to 100%, in which national borders and cross-country distances pose no constraints to international flows.

The latest reading is 25%, which means the world is still closer to separate economies than a globalised world.

This meant that there was room for international trade flows to continue to grow, Altman pointed out.

Meanwhile, global trade patterns changed more in 2025 than they do in a typical year, but less than during other recent disruptions, such as during the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

There were some large decreases in trade between countries with difficult relations, such as China and the US, but most of the world maintained trade ties with their traditional partners, said Altman.

Direct trade between the US and China has fallen to 2% in 2025 from a peak of 3.6% of global trade in 2015, and trade between rival blocs of close allies of the US and China has fallen to 10.2% of world trade from 12.6% over the same period.

That meant about 4% of global trade had shifted away from geopolitical rivals so far, he said.

“International flows have remained highly resilient despite recent policy shocks. There has been no meaningful shift from international to domestic activity, and changes to geographic patterns of international flows in 2025 were fairly modest at the global level.”

Further, trade’s share of global economic activity remained near a record high. In 2025, an estimated 21% of the value of all goods and services produced worldwide crossed at least one border and ended up in a different country from where it was produced, which is slightly below the 22% peak level reached in 2008.

Despite turbulence in the trade environment, trade’s role in the global economy had not declined appreciably. International production via global value chains had also remained robust, said Altman.

However, the vast majority of economic activity is still domestic, with roughly 80% of global economic output used in the same country where it is produced.

The share of goods traded, as a percentage of value-added goods produced in domestic economies, has declined to an estimated 32% in 2025 from a peak of 37% in 2008, largely owing to China’s domestic economy growing faster than its exports between 2006 and 2018.

For the rest of the world, the share of goods produced locally that are traded internationally does not show a substantial declining trend. Additionally, since 2018, China has again become more export-oriented, helping sustain the resilience of global goods trade after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Further, the industry with the highest export intensity in 2024 was mining, with about 49% of value added from mining ending up in a different country from where it was produced.

Heavy manufacturing follows close behind, with 48% of value serving foreign markets. The sector with the third-highest export intensity is light manufacturing at 34%, followed by transport services at 30%, and other business services at 27% of value serving foreign markets.

At the opposite extreme, education and health, and public administration and defence are almost entirely domestic, with only 2% to 3% of value serving foreign markets.

Meanwhile, DHL would invest in expanding its capabilities in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, in line with its strategy of investing in regions that provide geopolitical tailwinds, said DHL Express Europe CEO Mike Parra.

The company was planning to invest €250-million in its operations in Europe, €500-million in its operations in the Middle East and €300-million in its operations in Africa in the coming years, he said.